|
我國產業價值鏈遷移研究－以我國產業價值鏈兩岸移動為例
|
|
|
|
類別：經濟部ITIS系列
出版品名稱：我國產業價值鏈遷移研究－以我國產業價值鏈兩岸移動為例
作者：楊家彥,李慧萍
出版年月：200712
語文：中文,
總頁數：
定價：2,000
DOI：
停售
|
|
|
|
|
內容摘要
|
受到全球化與中國經濟崛起的影響，我國製造業外移歷時已久，自1970年代開始，中國與東南亞低廉生產成本大量投入國際生產與貿易體系，台灣產業鏈低階加工製造領域，開始外移到這些相對勞動密集的國家，而隨著這一波結構轉型，使得電子、資訊等新興產業取代傳統產業成為製造業龍頭。但隨後台灣經濟命脈所繫的高科技產業，取代昔日的傳統夕陽產業，興起一波投資中國的熱潮，對台灣製造業發展與產業結構造成一定程度的衝擊。
本研究希望能利用現有累積多年的貿易、投資等相關數據資料，找尋我國產業價值鏈移動的主要決定因素與可能趨勢，發揮預警與及早擬定對策的功能，協助政府推動相關產業政策。基於目前我國產業主要外移地區，仍以中國為主，故本研究將建立相關經濟模型與指標，利用兩岸貿易、投資等時間序列資料，求證我國產業價值鏈兩岸移動的重要因素，並嘗試建構觀測我國產業外移前兆的指標，以及價值鏈變動的趨勢作為政府訂定相關產業與科技創新政策的參考。結果得到：
1.累計至2007年10月對中國投資占我國對外投資的比重已超過五成，且平均投資規模日益增加，而與主要國家相較我國對中國投資依存度僅次於香港，由於對中國投資比重逐年增加，以致於台灣接單、中國生產的比重也不斷攀升，2006年台灣資訊硬體中國生產的比重由2005年的81%增加為85.5%，而台灣生產的比重則2005年的6.8%下降至4.2%，顯示科技業廠商加速外移中國生產。
2.隨著台商對中國投資金額增加，引申對上游原料、零組件及半成品的需求，再加上中國商品回銷台灣，使得近年來台灣與中國貿易額成長快速，自2002年起中國超越日本成為我國最大貿易國。隨著台商在各地集團式的投資，漸漸地帶動整個產業鏈的投資，台商回購比例下降，反映出中國產業發展較過去完整，過去所無法生產的原料當地已逐漸可以供應，相對增加中國境內原料的競爭力，減少原料進口，當地採購比重增加，有助於其進口原料的替代，我們也發現對中國投資對台灣所創造的貿易效果呈逐漸遞減的趨勢，業者轉而朝向更有效率的運用當地資源並致力當地化發展。
3.我國出口中間財與零組件至中國、中國生產加工後出口最終產品至各國，此種分工模式也使得我國在各主要市場的占有率下降，市占率下滑的產品由早期的傳統產業轉為資訊電子產業，早期皆認為中國對我國高技術產品應不構成競爭的威脅，但近幾年國內高技術人力產品被替代的比例逐漸擴大，甚至超過中、低技術的被替代比例，韓國亦與我國相似，但高技術人力產品被替代的比例較為緩和，此現象值得密切的注意。
4.中國本身之內需、進出口與我國下游產業累計被中國替代金額、累計至中國之投資的確對我國上游產業出口至中國金額有所助益，不過我國下游產業累計被中國替代金額以及累計至中國之投資之變動彈性小於上游產業規模之變動彈性，隱含當下游產業累計被中國替代金額、累計至中國之投資達到一定程度時，我國上游產業會開始外移，投資所引申之需求將開始遞減。由實證結果發現，化學工業在四大行業中表現最佳，而民生工業與金屬機械業已開始出現貿易效果遞減的情況，而資訊電子業已出現下游產品被替代的金額越高，引申對上游出口的需求越少，顯示中國電子業產業鏈中下游越趨完整，若上游產業同步外移，台灣整體電子業競爭力將急速下滑。子業為我國主力產業，若整體產業皆外移，又尚未出現新興產業遞補此缺口，將對整體就業與所得有相當負面的影響。
Affected by the globalization and knowledge economy, our manufacturing industrial outward-shifting has lasted for a long time. From 1970s, China and Southeast Asia started to join international production and trade system. Taiwan low-end processing manufacture domain transferred to these relative labor-intensive countries gradually. Along with the structure reforming, enabled the emerging industries, such as the electric industry, the information industry and so on, replaced traditional industry to become the major industries. Afterwards, the Taiwan economic lifeline high-tech industry raised a wave to invest in China, created certain impacts of Taiwan manufacturing industry development.
China is our main industrial outward-shifting country. This study uses trade and investment time-series data to check the main factors of the industry value chain shifting. It also finds out the possible change of industrial development structure and main industries. The analysis results could assist the government to impel the related industrial policy. The findings are listed as below:
1. Accumulated till October, 2007, the proportion of investment in China account for our FDI has surpassed 50% and the average size of investment seems growing. Compared with major countries, the degree of our Chinese investment dependency is only lower than Hong Kong. Due to the investment in China grows year by year, the proportion of order processing in Taiwan and manufacturing in China increases unceasingly. From 2005 to 2006, the proportion of information hardware manufacture in China increased by up to 85.5% from 81%, and the proportion in Taiwan decrease by 4.2% from 6.8%. Demonstrate the technical enterprise move manufacturing capacities to China rapidly.
2. Due to the investment-led demand of upstream raw material, the part and half-finished products and the Chinese commodity sells back to Taiwan in addition, the trade volume between Taiwan and China grows fast. China surmounted Japan to become our biggest trade partner from 2002. Taiwanese businessman group's -like investments in China drive the entire industrial investments. The downward proportion of Taiwanese businessman return buys reflects the completeness of Chinese industries, she can supply the raw material which was unable to produce in the past by herself, increased Chinese raw material relative competitiveness, and reduced raw material import. The increase of local purchase proportion will benefit its raw material import replacement. We also find the effect of investment-led economy seems slow down, entrepreneurs begin to use local resources and devote to the localization.
3. Taiwan exports the middle products and parts to China and she produces the final products then exports to other countries. This kind of cooperation causes our market share drops in major markets and transfer from the traditional industry to the information electric industry. In the past few years, the percentage of our high-tech products being replaced by the Chinese products has gradually increased, even exceeding the percentage of the middle- or low-tech products. The republic Korea has noticed the same situation. However, the percentage of its high-tech product replaced by Chinese competitors is slightly lower. This situation deserves devoted attention.
4. China’s import and export volumes, the accumulated Chinese replacement amount of our downstream industries and accumulated investment of upstream industries do benefit our Chinese export volume of upstream industries. But the elasticity of accumulated Chinese replacement and investment amount are smaller than the elasticity of upstream industrial scale toward the export volume of upstream industries. It implies when the accumulated Chinese replacement amount of our downstream industries and investment of upstream industries achieved to certain degree, our upstream industries start to move outward and the effect of investment-led economy decreases gradually. From empirical results, we find the chemical industry performed best in four industries. The investment-led trade effect of people's livelihood and the metal machinery industry started to decrease. The information electric industry already appeared the situation that the more the accumulated Chinese replacement amount of our downstream industries is, the less the investment-led demand of upstream industries. It demonstrated the growing completeness of Chinese midstream and downstream electronic industry. If the upstream industry moves simultaneously, the entire electric industry competitiveness will drop down rapidly. Electric industry is our major industry, if industry moves out entirely, and there’s no emerging industry to fill the vacancies, it will have quite negative influences to the economy.
|
|
目錄
|
|
第一章 緒 論
|
|
第一節 研究動機與目的
|
|
第二節 研究內容
|
|
第三節 研究方法與架構
|
|
第四節 研究限制
|
|
第五節 章節安排
|
|
第二章 文獻回顧
|
|
第一節 Offshoring定義與相關文獻回顧
|
|
第二節 我國產業價值鏈的遷移與影響
|
|
第三章 我國產業價值鏈外移中國之趨勢
|
|
第一節 我國對中國投資與產業價值鏈之變化
|
|
第二節 我國在各主要市場被中國替代的情況
|
|
第三節 小結
|
|
第四章 我國產業價值鏈移動的主要決定因素與可能趨勢
|
|
第一節 模型設立
|
|
第二節 模型設立
|
|
第三節 實證結果
|
|
第四節 外移之前兆指標
|
|
第五節 小結
|
|
第五章 結論
|
|
參考文獻
|
|
|
圖目錄
|
|
|
|
表目錄
|
|
|